WASHINGTON (TNND) — There are still six months until this year's midterm elections, but Democrats are feeling good about their chances of retaking the House -- and possibly even the Senate -- as President Donald Trump's approval ratings trend downward and the war on Iran marches on.

But November is a long way away and the Democratic Party is still in the process of figuring itself out as the Trump era comes to a slow close.

FILE - President Donald Trump arrives to speak at The Villages Charter School on May 1, 2026 in The Villages, Florida. (Photo by Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images)

Trump's approval rating is cratering in most national polls, with a recent NBC News survey showing 37% of adults approve of the second-term president while more than 60% disapprove. Recent polls also show Democratic Senate candidates are leading or tied for seats held by Republicans in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio.

Democrats have also swept up in state legislative special elections since the start of 2025. The party has flipped 27 total seats controlled by Republicans in special elections in that time, while Republicans have not flipped any, according to data from The Downballot.

To win the Senate, Democrats must wrestle away four seats from the Republicans while also holding seats of their own in toss-up states Georgia and Michigan. Analysts argue achieving that goal is possible but more of a longshot.

"Democrats have to pitch a perfect game," Jessica Taylor, an analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told USA TODAY earlier this week. Trump and Republicans are doing everything in their power to put up potential hurdles for their political opponents.

FILE - Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee member Sen. John Fetterman (D-WV) prepares to vote to advance Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) to be Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security during a markup hearing in the Dirksen Senate Office Building on Capitol Hill on March 19, 2026 in Washington. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

For one, Politico is reporting that the GOP is trying to convince Sen. John Fetterman, D-PA, to either join Republicans or declare himself an independent if Democrats have a good showing in the Midterm elections. Trump reportedly endorses the move and is willing to back Fetterman financially.

So far, Fetterman is sticking with the Democrats, but a poll of his constituents last December by Emerson College found he had higher approval rating among Republicans than his own party. The Pennsylvania senator has fallen out of favor with portions of the party over his support for Israel.

Other structural factors could become barriers, such as turmoil within the Democratic Party itself.

There's a budding effort to oust Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin for not releasing some version of the DNC's 2024 autopsy, according to new reporting from The Bulwark. Martin argues the focus should be on what happens in this year's election and in the next presidential cycle rather than why Democrats lost a second time to Trump.

"Here’s our North Star: does this help us win? If the answer is 'no,' it’s a distraction from the core mission," Martin said after becoming the chair last February. It remains to be seen whether his position or that of the DNC will cut muster for voters.

Another possible wrinkle to iron out or mountain standing in the party's way is the redistricting war. In the early going, Democrats have run even with Republicans in terms of how many favorable seats they've drawn during the off-decade gerrymandering battle.

State Rep. Angie Nixon, D-Fla., speaks loudly on the House floor as the House voted on HB1D, a redistricting bill, during a special session of the Florida Legislature, Wednesday, April 29, 2026, in Tallahassee, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Stewart)

But the U.S. Supreme Court's recent decision peeling back portions of the Voting Rights Act could put black districts in the South and elsewhere at risk for Democrats. While Republicans are chomping at the bit to gain a foothold in those districts, analysts question the degree to which it will impact this year's elections.

Many of the changes might happen after the midterms, given that the ruling conflicts with many states' primary election schedules. Louisiana Republican Gov. Jeff Landry has elected to delay his state's elections to redraw districts in accordance with the ruling. His party plans to erase one or two black-majority House seats.

The one canary in the coal mine for both parties remains the war on Iran. The Trump administration is stuck in between keeping the conflict with Tehran going and finding an off-ramp through a larger nuclear deal, which could include plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The critical waterway moves some 20% of the world's oil. Gas prices have skyrocketed ever since Iran slammed the gates closed shortly after the war began in February. Trump said there are two or three weeks remaining until the Strait of Hormuz reopens and the war comes to a conclusion, but he's made similar promises in the past.

In March, gas prices jumped by 21%, marking the largest one-month increase on record. The jump pushed the inflation rate to 3.3%. Oil analysts are warning there will be more pain at the pump the longer the Persian Gulf is closed off to oil transports.