President Donald Trump’s historic, norm-breaking presidency has unraveled Washington and thrown the Democratic Party into a state of shock. However, after what’ll be two years of relative powerlessness, in three months' time, Democrats have a chance to take back control of Congress and counter Trump's agenda.
The RealClear Polling Generic Congressional vote gives Democrats a 6-point edge. Kalshi and Polymarket give the party an 86-84 percent chance of taking the House, but Republicans still hold a 56-54 percent chance of keeping the Senate. Of course, in today’s era of politics anything can happen, and both parties have reasons to feel confident.
"While Democrats are busy infighting and nominating candidates with severe character flaws, Republicans are united, on offense, and armed with the largest war chest in party history," Natalie Baldassarre, national press secretary for the Republican National Committee (RNC), told Newsweek in a statement. "President Trump has lowered drug prices, secured our border, created jobs, and lowered taxes—and he’s just getting started. It’s a clear choice between common sense versus communism in November, and we're confident our voters will turn out to give President Trump a full four years to implement his America First agenda."
However, Democrats believe that not only do national polls and prediction markets point in their direction, but lower-profile elections since Trump returned to office demonstrate measurable voter resistance to Republican policies. Speaking to Newsweek, a DNC official pointed to Democratic performance in special elections and state legislative races as evidence that voter enthusiasm and early organizing may matter as much as headline cash-on-hand figures.
"Donald Trump and Republicans have created a toxic midterm environment for themselves by driving up costs on everything from gas to groceries to healthcare, leaving Americans feeling like they’re barely able to keep their heads above water," DNC spokesperson Jaelin O’Halloran told Newsweek in a statement. "While Trump and Republicans leave Americans grappling with their reckless tariffs and a deadly and costly war with Iran, Democrat candidates are on the ground, showing up and listening to voters about the issues that matter most. Since Trump took office, Democrats have been aggressively organizing and investing across the country to help our candidates win up and down the ballot—and that’s why Democrats are going to sweep this November."
However, as Newsweek has been charting daily in our Midterms Monitor newsletter, there is more to these races than just the overall national narrative, and each contest has idiosyncrasies and polling quirks that shape whether they lean left or right. Newsweek crafted a breakdown of the nine Senate races and 18 House races that will determine control of Congress.
Senate
Conventional wisdom suggests Republicans hold an advantage when it comes to controlling the upper chamber after this cycle, as Democrats path to victory runs through state's that Trump won firmly each of the three times he's run.
To attain the gavel, the left must net four seats. With just three months, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) and National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) each hold strategies they believe will deliver control. For Republicans, the strategy hinges in part on winning Michigan.
"As Democrats drown in dysfunction and burn resources on divisive primaries in Michigan and Minnesota, Senate Republicans remain focused on exposing the socialist, tax-hiking agenda of candidates like Abdul El-Sayed," NRSC national press secretary Bernadette Breslin told Newsweek.
DSCC spokesman Joe Bush shared the following statement from DSCC Chair Kirsten Gillibrand on why she believes Democrats hold an edge: "While Democrats run on local issues, lowering costs, and fighting for working families, Republicans’ batch of weakened, flawed candidates are being put on defense for their records and support of Trump’s toxic agenda that is spiking prices, ripping away health care, and putting billionaires and powerful special interests before the American people."
Here are the individual dynamics shaping each race that dictate which candidates currently hold a polling lead:
Alaska
Trump has won Alaska three times, and the state is not considered a swing at the presidential level. Nonetheless, in former Congresswoman Mary Peltola, Democrats see one of their best fighters in their quest to take control of the Senate. Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan has $8 million in cash while Peltola has $6 million, but the race remains complicated.
An independent candidate, who also happens to be named Dan Sullivan, will appear on the state’s ranked-choice ballot. Also, Peltola has won statewide before, with her "Fish, Family, Freedom" motto being widely known in the state, but she’ll need to work hard to knock off the Republican candidate.
Cook rates the race as a toss-up, and in turn polling is mixed, with some showing Peltola a few points ahead and others giving Sullivan a slight lead.
Prediction market Kalshi gives Peltola a 55 percent chance of flipping the seat while Polymarket gives her a 61 percent chance. If the markets prove correct, a Peltola victory would send shock waves through the political system and shift the narrative about Democratic competitiveness in red states.
Maine
Perhaps no race in the country has offered as many twists and turns as Maine.
Political outsider Graham Platner created shock waves by beating Governor Janet Mills in the Democratic primary by drawing on his unorthodox background as Newsweek reported in May.
However, following allegations of rape and sexual misconduct, he dropped out of the race, and former State Senate Leader Troy Jackson rose in his stead, promoting a similarly populist message.
"Democrats are fighting for the [working class]," Jackson told Newsweek. "We just need to get back to [talking] economics."
In theory, he should be poised for victory. Maine has voted against Trump each time he ran, after all. Yet, he faces five-term Senator Susan Collins, who notably knocked off a Democratic challenger in 2020 despite Trump losing the state. She chairs the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee and controls an $11 million war chest to boot.
Cook rates this contest as a toss-up, and polling on the race is limited and mixed.
However, Kalshi gives Jackson a 64 percent chance of winning, and Polymarket gives him a 68 percent chance. As in 2020, where Collins trailed in nearly every poll, Maine is a hard state to gauge, which means Democrats and Republicans will be taking this race very seriously in the build-up toward November.
Michigan
Michigan remains undecided on the Democratic side, with former state public health official Dr. Abdul El-Sayed facing Congresswoman Haley Stevens in an August 4 primary in what’s become a key proxy between the Democratic establishment and the progressive wing of the party. Meanwhile, former Congressman Mike Rogers has been sitting tight as the GOP’s presumptive nominee for months.
Rogers came within 0.3 percent of beating Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin in 2024 for that cycle’s open Senate seat. The seat being fought over now is held by retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters.
Though Michigan has not elected a Republican to the Senate since Spencer Abraham won an open seat in 1994, this race has emerged as a "very good pickup opportunity" for the party, given the contentious Democratic primary and relatively short window between the primary and Election Day, a GOP official told Newsweek.
In turn, Cook rates this contest as a toss-up. In the RealClear Polling averages, El-Sayed polls 0.5 percent ahead of Rogers, and Stevens also polls 0.5 percent ahead. Polymarket gives Democrats a 68 percent advantage while Kalshi gives Democrats a 69 percent chance. While Democrats have an edge, the closeness of these races in an expected blue wave year reflects their unique dynamics.
"We’re running a campaign to Get Michigan Working Again, which means reviving Michigan manufacturing, saving our schools, securing our streets, and making life more affordable," Rogers told Newsweek.
Ohio
This is the only race this cycle that effectively pits two incumbents against each other. The senator in office, Jon Husted, has served since 2025 after being appointed to Vice President JD Vance’s former seat.
But he’s up against former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, who served in the Senate for 18 years but lost his seat in 2025 to Bernie Moreno. With Trump no longer atop the ballot, Brown believes he can win despite the state’s red hue. His campaign manager Patrick Eisenhauer previewed this message in Newsweek's Midterms Monitor:
"Ohioans across the state are fed up with skyrocketing costs and Jon Husted voting to make things worse," Eisenhauer, said adding that families were ready to hold Husted "accountable for his role in the affordability crisis."
Husted spokesperson Amy Natoce countered with this message: "Sherrod Brown spent 32 years in Washington with nothing to show for it. Polls will go up and down all summer. What won’t change is that voters fired Brown two years ago after looking at this record, and they’re not willing to go backwards now."
Cook rates it a toss-up, and RealClear Polling gives Brown a 0.6 percent advantage. Polymarket favors Brown by 52 percent, and Kalshi favors him by 53 percent. Democratic turnout and 2024 regret among swing voters will determine the race.
Georgia
The race to represent Georgia in the U.S. Senate pits incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff against incumbent Republican Congressman Mike Collins.
While many considered this match to be the race where Democrats were most vulnerable entering the cycle, most election forecasters agree that’s no longer the case.
The Cook Political Report shifted this race from toss-up to "lean D" in May, but the RealClear Polling average places Ossoff nearly eight points ahead. Kalshi gives Ossoff a 90 percent chance while Polymarket gives him 88 percent.
Part of that comes on account of Ossoff’s $42 million war chest, while Collins has just around $2 million in cash on hand. The other part lies in the fact that Ossoff has generated significant excitement among Democrats, so much so that he’s being touted as a potential 2028 presidential candidate.
"I think that people are getting excited about him because he does not back down from Donald Trump," Maria Cardona, a Democratic strategist and CNN commentator, told Newsweek in a July profile of Ossoff’s momentum.
North Carolina
The race to flip North Carolina was supposed to be a far tougher task for Democrats.
This was the only swing state Trump carried in each of his three presidential runs, and the state has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008.
Nonetheless, former Governor Roy Cooper is running away with it, posting a near 8-point RealClear Polling lead and a "lean D" rating from the Cook Political Report. Kalshi gives Cooper a 91 percent chance while Polymarket gives him 88 percent.
This seat is currently occupied by Republican Senator Thom Tillis, who Trump threatened with a primary. Tillis elected to retire, and in his stead emerged former RNC Chair Michael Whatley.
Despite that role, Whatley has struggled with fundraising. The former chair has just $3.5 million in the bank compared with Cooper’s $20 million. As far as pickup opportunities go, North Carolina stands as the Democrats' best opportunity.
"A lot of North Carolina voters, including Republicans and independents, feel like they know Roy Cooper's character and appreciate his pushback against the tax breaks for billionaires and health care cuts that Whatley supports," Andrew Bates, a Democratic strategist and native North Carolinian, told Newsweek. "At the same time, Whatley will have a flood of corporate money behind him, and it's been almost 20 years since a Democrat won a Senate race there, which is why we know this race will be incredibly close."
New Hampshire
With the retirement of longtime Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen, New Hampshire boasts an open seat. Trump lost the state in each of his presidential runs, but both parties still consider it a swing state, and that’s reflected in the numbers.
The RealClear Polling average places Democratic Congressman Chris Pappas 3 points above former Republican Senator John E. Sununu. The prediction markets are a bit more bullish for Democrats, with Kalshi giving Pappas an 87 percent chance and Polymarket offering 84 percent.
Politicos on both sides of the aisle acknowledge that in an ideal world, Republicans would have recruited John’s brother, Chris Sununu, the state’s popular former governor. Nonetheless, the Sununu name has a long history in the state, with their father John H. Sununu having served as the state’s governor and their mother Nancy Sununu having served as chair of the state Republican Party.
Though this race may not be the splashiest, it’s a defensive opportunity Democrats are taking seriously. As outlined recently in Newsweek’s Midterms Monitor, New Hampshire is part of the DSCC’s $40 million "Win the Senate" program.
"New Hampshire’s purple. It was Kamala Harris’ closest state, and the Sununu name has been a household name for a long time since before I was born," Pappas told PunchBowl News. "It’s going to be incredibly tricky."
Iowa
Barack Obama won Iowa in 2012, but since then the state has become firmly red, with just one Democrat (State Auditor and 2026 gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand) holding statewide office. However, with Trump holding a sub-40 approval rating, Democrats believe this could be their year to make inroads.
The race to replace retiring Senator Joni Ernst pits Republican Congresswoman Ashley Hinson against State Representative Josh Turek. In most years, Hinson’s candidacy in Iowa would go unquestioned. She’s raised $6.75 million compared with Turek's $2.36 million and has had an uncontroversial tenure in the House while holding a seat on the powerful Appropriations Committee.
However, with Trump facing low approval and Turek boasting a unique resume as a Paralympic gold medalist with the U.S. men's national wheelchair basketball team, Democrats are hopeful for an upset. Cook still rates the race as "Lean R" and RealClear Polling has the race as a tie. Prediction markets are a bit more confident in Hinson, however. Kalshi gives her a 57 percent chance of winning, and Polymarket gives her a 56 percent shot.
Texas
Perhaps no race has captured the imagination of Democrats more than Texas. State Representative James Talarico, a seminarian, has captured the party with his charismatic speeches and confident TV appearances, raising nearly $69 million in the process. Meanwhile, state Attorney General Ken Paxton, is a MAGA darling who’s overcome a litany of scandals and opposition from the party establishment, which Newsweek has covered closely. Paxton has raised just over $9 million this cycle, per Texas Tribune.
Texas is the crown jewel among GOP-controlled states and has not been represented by a Democrat in the Senate since 1993. Cook rates the race as Lean R, and the NRSC does not have it among its list of battlegrounds, which includes the eight other listed races.
Despite that, the RealClear Polling average has Talarico leading by 0.9 percent. Kalshi has Paxton at a 53 percent chance of winning, and Polymarket gives him a 52 percent chance.
No victory would be a greater shock to the political ecosystem this year than for Talarico to win in Texas. If he proved Democrats can win their statewide races, the GOP would face serious questions about its ability to maintain a winning coalition.
House Prediction Markets Show a Democratic Edge
The House battlefield is harder to read than the Senate map because many competitive districts have little recent public polling, with the races featuring a greater emphasis on local and regional issues.
Prediction markets offer a live, if imperfect, signal of where traders think these races stand, and at the time of writing, the available market data showed Democrats ahead in every House race reviewed by Newsweek. That matters because the chamber is so closely divided, with 218 Republicans, 212 Democrats, one Independent and four vacant seats.
"Democrats are running on lowering costs for the American people and ending the culture of corruption and self-dealing that leaves working people behind," Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Spokesperson Liam Buckley told Newsweek. "House Republicans don’t work for everyday families, they work for billionaires and special interests — it’s why they broke their promise to bring down prices and instead slashed health care and cut taxes for the wealthy and well-connected. The American people are with us, that’s why Democrats will win the House in November."
Naturally, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) rejects this narrative, believing that not only will the GOP House’s record carry candidates to victory but the natural political climate of the races in play favors their party as well.
"House Republicans are running on a winning agenda of tax relief for working families, lower costs, secure borders, safer communities, while Democrats are increasingly consumed by a civil war over the radical socialist takeover of their party," NRCC Spokesman Mike Marinella told Newsweek. "The NRCC has the stronger candidates, the more favorable map, record-breaking fundraising, and a winning message, while the DCCC is bogged down by self-inflicted chaos after wasting millions on disastrous far-left primaries and turning on one another."
Cook Political Report lists 18 House races as toss-ups, including several of the districts below. Here are what pollsters and the oddsmakers say about each of the 18 crucial races:
Arizona: Two GOP-held Seats Where Markets Lean Democratic
In Arizona's 1st congressional district, at the time of writing, Kalshi priced Democrat Amish Shah at 75 percent and Republican Jay Feely at 25 percent.
Polymarket showed a similar picture, with Shah at 73 percent and Feely at 28 percent.
In Arizona's 6th congressional district, Kalshi priced Democrat JoAnna Mendoza at 83 percent and Republican Juan Ciscomani at 17 percent.
Both Arizona districts are rated toss-ups by Cook Political Report and Inside Elections, so the contrast is useful: forecasters still see highly competitive races, while the markets clearly tilt toward Democrats.
California: CA-22 Shows a Forecaster-Market Split
In California's 22nd congressional district, Kalshi priced Democrat Randy Villegas at 80 percent and Republican David Valadao at 20 percent. Polymarket had the Democratic Party at 83 percent and the Republican Party at 15 percent.
This is one of the clearest examples of markets being more bullish on Democrats than some forecasters. Cook Political Report rates CA-22 as a toss-up, while Inside Elections places it in Tilt Republican.
Villegas is leaning into a cost-of-living message in the Central Valley. In a statement to Newsweek, he said working people were paying more for "gas, groceries, and housing," while promising to fight to "give working people a break, not billionaires."
Colorado: CO-08 Looks Like a Core Battleground
In Colorado's 8th congressional district, Kalshi priced Democrat Manny Rutinel at 74 percent and Republican Gabe Evans at 26 percent. Polymarket had Democrats at 71 percent and Republicans at 23 percent.
Both Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate CO-08 as a toss-up, making it an example of a race that forecasters still treat as genuinely competitive even as markets lean Democratic.
A Republican source told Newsweek that districts like this are unlikely to produce "a massive victory margin either way," even when one party appears favored in market data.
The source pointed to Evans’ local profile, including agriculture and ranching, as a reason Republicans believe he remains well-matched to the district.
Evans’ official House site says his family operates a farm in southern Weld County and describes CO-08 as a hub for agriculture, food processing, transportation and energy production.
Florida: FL-25 Is a More Cautious Democratic Signal
Florida's 25th congressional district is one of the closer market reads. Kalshi had Democrats at 63 percent and Republicans at 35 percent, while Polymarket had Democrats at 61 percent and Republicans at 37 percent.
Inside Elections rates FL-25 as a toss-up, so this should be viewed as a Democratic edge in the markets, but not a commanding one.
Democratic congressional candidate Oliver Larkin's campaign has framed FL-25 as both a general-election battleground and a test of whether Democrats choose a more progressive nominee for a newly competitive South Florida seat.
His campaign told Newsweek that affordability was the central issue, pointing to housing, property insurance, health care and child care costs, and said its field program had reached more than 100,000 voters.
New Jersey: NJ-07 Points to Suburban Pressure on Republicans
In New Jersey's 7th congressional district, Kalshi priced Democrat Rebecca Bennett at 84 percent and Republican Thomas Kean Jr. at 21 percent. Polymarket had Democrats at 79 percent and Republicans at 19 percent.
In some races, the market prices do not add up cleanly to 100 percent, so they are best read as a directional signal: traders were pricing Democrats ahead, not producing a traditional polling-style probability.
Cook Political Report rates NJ-07 as a toss-up, while Inside Elections lists it as Tilt Democratic.
New York: NY-17 Shows the Same Tension
In New York's 17th congressional district, Kalshi priced Democrat Cait Conley at 68 percent and Republican Mike Lawler at 32 percent. Polymarket had Democrats at 79 percent and Republicans at 19 percent.
The market numbers suggest traders see a Democratic opportunity, but the forecasters remain more cautious. Cook Political Report and Inside Elections both rate NY-17 as a toss-up.
Pennsylvania: Three Toss-ups, Different Market Margins
Pennsylvania may be the most important House cluster in this list, with its 7th, 8th and 10th congressional districts all rated toss-ups by Cook Political Report and Inside Elections.
In PA-07, Kalshi priced Democrat Bob Brooks at 71 percent and Republican Ryan Mackenzie at 33 percent. Polymarket had Democrats at 77 percent and Republicans at 24 percent.
PA-08 looked tighter. Kalshi priced Democrat Paige Cognetti at 62 percent and Republican Rob Bresnahan at 43 percent, while Polymarket had Democrats at 57 percent and Republicans at 43 percent.
Democratic candidate Paige Cognetti is framing PA-08 as a reform-versus-corruption race, citing her record as Scranton mayor and attacking Republican incumbent Rob Bresnahan over congressional stock trading.
In a statement to Newsweek, Cognetti said voters faced a choice between "a proven reformer" and an incumbent she said was "only interested in serving himself." Cook Political Report has also noted that Bresnahan’s stock trades have "dogged him all cycle."
PA-10 showed a stronger Democratic market position. Kalshi priced Democrat Janelle Stelson at 76 percent and Republican Scott Perry at 18 percent, while Polymarket had Democrats at 79 percent and Republicans at 22 percent.
The overall Pennsylvania takeaway is that all three races are competitive on the ratings board, but not identical in the markets: PA-08 appears closer, while PA-10 looked more favorable to Democrats at the time of writing.
Virginia: One of the Strongest Democratic Market Readings
In Virginia's 2nd congressional district, Kalshi had Democrats at 81 percent and Republicans at 18 percent. Polymarket had Democrats at 84 percent and Republicans at 16 percent.
That is one of the strongest Democratic readings in the market data, even though Cook Political Report and Inside Elections both rate VA-02 as a toss-up.
Democratic candidate Elaine Luria, a former House member and 20-year Navy veteran, is trying to frame VA-02 around independence, prices and public trust.
In a statement to Newsweek, she said Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans had promised to be "an independent voice for Hampton Roads ... instead, she’s shown she is a pay-to-play politician who sides with special interests." Luria also argued that voters needed someone to bring "common sense back to Congress."
Washington: WA-03 Remains Competitive
In Washington’s 3rd District, Kalshi showed the Democratic Party ahead of the Republican Party in its House winner market, with Democrats at 84 percent and Republicans at 23 percent at the time of writing.
Forecasters remain cautious. Inside Elections rates WA-03 as a toss-up, underscoring that Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is still facing a competitive race despite the market’s Democratic lean.
Wisconsin: WI-03 Is Democratic-leaning but Still Competitive
In Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district, Kalshi had Democrats at 63 percent and Republicans at 35 percent. Polymarket had Democrats at 67 percent and Republicans at 34 percent.
Both Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate WI-03 as a toss-up. That makes it more like FL-25 and PA-08 than VA-02: the markets lean Democratic, but not so strongly that the race should be treated as settled.
What Happens Next
Taken together, prediction markets show a House battlefield that looks more favorable to Democrats than the toss-up ratings alone suggest.
The clearest Democratic market advantages appear in AZ-06, NJ-07, VA-02, WA-03, CA-22 and PA-10, while FL-25, PA-08 and WI-03 look closer.
But the markets do not make these races settled. They show Democrats being priced ahead in districts forecasters still consider competitive.
If those markets are wrong, the reason may lie in the same caution reflected by nonpartisan race ratings: district-level polling is limited, local dynamics matter, and late campaign developments can still move voters.
Despite being statewide, these dynamics shape Senate races as well. With three months till November 3, expect an avalanche of campaign dollars as each party seeks to win over the small but pivotal population of swing voters who will decide the election and shape the course of America’s future.
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Update 8/4/26, 4:10 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.